Archive

Every claim, tested

A running record of every claim I've tested, what I expected before running it, and what the data said. The archive is the point: a hundred tested claims is a reference nobody else has.

No.DateClaimVerdict
01Oct 4, 2026
Sell stocks when they look expensive
$1 became $327, not $1,265
Lost money in every threshold tested
02Oct 11, 2026
A VIX above 40 is a buy signal that's right 9 out of 10 times
207 data points are really 9
True, and nearly meaningless

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